세계원유가격 및 경제성장 분석을 위한 장기국제 원유무역 모형

Abstract

Since energy consumption of developing countries is expected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, the oil-importing developing countries are likely to encounter chronic balance-of-payments difficulties. To analyze the quantitative impacts of this problem, we develope a computable model of international trade.

This paper presents four alternative cases-varying the assumptions with respect to energy supplies. This shows that relativelt small difference in supplies can lead to 100% differences in the energy prices projected for 1990.