Risk Model Development for PWR During Shutdown

Abstract

Numerous losses of decay heat removal capability have occurred at U during stutodwn while its significance to safety is needless to say. A study is carried out as an attempt to assess what could be done to lower the frequency of these events and to mitigate their consequences in the unlikely event that one occurs. The shutdown risk model is developed and analyzed using Event/Fault Tree for the typical pressurized water reactor. The human cognitive reliability (HCR) model, two-stage bayesian approach and staircase function model are used to estimate human reliability, initiating event frequency and offsite power non-recovery probability given loss of offsite power, respectively. The results of this study indicate that the risk of a Pm at shutdown is not much lower than the risk when the plant is operating. By examining the dominant accident sequences obtained, several design deficiencies are identified and it is found that some proposed changes lead to significant reduction in core damage frequency due to loss of cooling events.