Estimation of P(X<Y) in the Exponential Case with Common Location Parameter

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of estimating the probability P = Pr(X < Y) when X and Y are independent exponential random variables with unequal scale parameters and a common location parameter. Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator of P is obtained. The asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator is obtained and then the asymptotic equivalence of the two estimators is established. Performance of the two estimators for moderate sample sizes is studied by Monte Carlo simulation. An approximate interval estimator is also obtained.