(A) delpi-technology forecasting approach using semi-markov concept

Abstract

This study suggests a new technology forecasting approach which uses Semi-Markov concept to formulate technology forecasting. In order to avoid the difficulty in predicting the probabilities which a technology will occur, transition probabilities, and holding time mass functions, Frequentist approach will be used under the assumption that a large amount of data are available. This research focuses primarily upon the use of skipped information in Delphi survey data. With this aim, this study develops the model utilizing unrevealed information in Delphisurvey and, in order to use it effectively, computer based model is designed for IBM pc.