On the temperature of Bayesian graph neural networks for conformal prediction

Abstract

Accurate uncertainty quantification in graph neural networks (GNNs) is essential, especially in high-stakes domains where GNNs are frequently employed. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a promising framework for quantifying uncertainty by providing valid prediction sets for any black-box model. CP ensures formal probabilistic guarantees that a prediction set contains a true label with a desired probability. However, the size of prediction sets, known as inefficiency, is influenced by the underlying model and data generating process. On the other hand, Bayesian learning also provides a credible region based on the estimated posterior distribution, but this region is well-calibrated only when the model is correctly specified. Building on a recent work that introduced a scaling parameter for constructing valid credible regions from posterior estimate, our study explores the advantages of incorporating a temperature parameter into Bayesian GNNs within CP framework. We empirically demonstrate the existence of temperatures that result in more efficient prediction sets. Furthermore, we conduct an analysis to identify the factors contributing to inefficiency and offer valuable insights into the relationship between CP performance and model calibration.