Investigation into the feasibility of predicting the likelihood of countries' nuclear power development

Abstract

Over 50 countries expressed interest in nuclear energy since the Atoms for Peace Initiative in 1953. However, currently only 32 countries have operating nuclear plants. This brings into question what led some countries to have a successful nuclear program and others to stop pursuing a nuclear program. This study examined the history of nuclear programs across 82 countries, with and without nuclear plants, from 1946 to 2020. A multinomial logistic regression was employed to determine the significant factors and predict the course of national nuclear program with the following outcomes: interest, construction, defer or scrap, and grid connection. This study found that high electricity demand, international cooperation, lower levels of democracy, and nuclear weapon program contributed positively to the outcome of nuclear programs. High shares of renewables and major nuclear accidents contributed negatively to the outcome of nuclear programs. High crude oil price contributed to the negative outcome, but it did spark the interest for countries to consider nuclear power. Prediction models using multinomial logistic regression, logistic regression, and linear regression were developed to predict the likelihood of success or failure of a country’s nuclear program. Due to the issues of missing data, limitations in the statistical models, and continuous nature of the observed outcomes, the developed models were inadequate to accurately predict the outcomes, in particular, in capturing the factors influencing nuclear programs such as the phase-out policies in nuclear countries.