Longevity of Partnering Terrorist Organization: An Empirical Study Using A Network Diffusion Model

Abstract

Cooperation between two terrorist groups benefits both, but there are also risks. This paper focuses on these risks, especially how the demise of one group affects the longevity of the remaining groups. Using a generalized equation estimations (GEE) model with data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) from 2001 to 2016, this paper analyses how the disbanding of one partner terrorist group with the same ideology and regime type affects the longevity of the remaining groups in a cooperative relationship. The results indicate that when a partnering terrorist group with religious ideology ceases to exist, remaining groups have a better chance of survival as compared to those with other ideologies. In addition, when two groups are based in democratic nations and one partner disbands, the remaining group is more likely to disband. Moreover, if collaborating groups operate under different regime types and one group disbands, the remaining terrorist groups are less likely to disband as compared to those groups operating under regimes of the same type.