Demand Estimation and Sustainability Analysis of Hybrid Light-duty Truck Conversion Technology -Focused on Courier Trucks in Korea

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to confirm the sustainability of the hybrid diesel-electric light-duty truck technology from the perspectives of the society and the consumer. In order to confirm sustainability from the social perspective, this study compared the cost required for technology development with the social benefits of fuel and GHG cost reduction by introducing the technology. In addition, to confirm sustainability from the consumer’s perspective, we compared the additional costs required from the individual consumers with the increase and decrease in future fuel costs. As a result of the analysis, the sustainability from a social perspective resulted in a B/C of 4.47∼21.39 in all of the scenarios considered in this study, thereby ensuring economic feasibility. In terms of sustainability from the consumer’s perspective, the annual fuel cost savings in the most pessimistic scenario was 950 thousand won, which takes 6.9 years to recover the total cost of investment. The annual fuel cost savings in the most optimistic scenario was 1.69 million won, which takes 2.7 years to recover the total cost of investment, thereby ensuring feasibility of technology introduction from the consumer’s point of view. This study confirmed that the technology to convert a light-duty truck into a hybrid diesel-electric truck, which is expected to increase rapidly in the freight transportation sector, is sustainable from the perspectives of the society and the consumer