Positive and negative information transfers from management forecasts

Abstract

We examine positive and negative information transfers associated with management earnings and revenue forecasts. Positive information transfers are due to industry commonalities whereas negative information transfers are caused by competitive shifts. We argue that positive and negative intra-industry information transfers offset each other and lead to an overall finding of no information transfers even though they exist. We also conjecture that the type of information transfers from the same management forecast can be positive or negative based on the characteristics of the information receiver. We hypothesize positive information transfers to nonrival firms and negative information transfers to rivals. Consistent with our prediction, we find negative (positive) information transfers between forecasting firms and nonforecasting rival (nonrival) firms in the same industry. Through analyses using competitors identified by Hoover's and 10-K reports, we show more general evidence of negative information transfers to rival firms.