Analysis for effects of command and control process on combat results by modelling and simulation

Abstract

Decision-making in military operations requires to consider various factors that influence the combat processes and results. Military command and control (C2) relies on a commander's knowledge, experience, intuition, and judgement as well as military doctrines which provide principles and standard processes. C2 has been regarded as one of human roles in traditional military modelling and simulation for training such as war games, or oversimplified in simulation models for combat analysis. However, C2 has been increasingly paid attention on modern modelling and simulation because C2 processes are rapidly automated, integrated, and enhanced by information and communication technologies. Therefore, modern C2 systems make significant impact on combat performance. However, how to model and analyse C2 processes and decisions is yet to examine further. We therefore develop C2 modelling methods and examine effects of C2 on combat performance by using C2 models. We first propose how to model detailed C2 processes and decisions, which include communication, thinking, decision, and monitoring and control processes of human commanders and staffs of combat units. We develop models for C2 components using discrete event system specification (DEVS) formalism, where the C2 process can be modelled as a state machine receives, processes, and produces discrete events. The C2 process models, which are hierarchically structured according to chain of command of a unit, communicates, interacts or reacts with each other under predefined military doctrines and C2 decision rules. We also model the C2 process as a layered structure using the concept of multi-model. A multi-model is a model that consists of two or more models, which are different in terms of abstraction levels and perspective views. For example, a commander who perform C2 process is modelled as a layered structure having two different models. One is a phase transition model which represents phase changes according to discrete events, and another is a operation or function that describes how states are changed inside the phase. Second, we apply the proposed C2 modelling method to analyse effects of delay times of detailed C2 processes on combat results. We analyse effectiveness of detailed C2 tasks for an army infantry company, of which individual combat entities are directly controlled and affected by the commander’s decisions and orders, but have not been well addressed by traditional combat simulation modelling. We build a simulation model representing the company operation with detailed C2 tasks, and we perform the virtual experiment with the model. Our analysis reveals the key C2 tasks that enable us to improve current tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP) about C2 process. Finally, we next use the C2 modelling method to identify key C2 decision factors and optimise parameters of C2 decisions in an army mechanised infantry brigade engagement. We find optimal parameters of the C2 decision factors by Taguchi method, an experimental design method, so as to be robust against noises, which can occur in battlefields. We build a simulation model of the brigade operation with its detailed C2 process models, and we conduct the virtual experiment about C2 decision factors. Analytical results of the simulation suggest optimised decision factors which can change existing notions about C2 times.