Web caching has become an important problem when addressing the performance issues in Web applications. The expiration time of the Web data item is useful a piece of information for performance enhancement in Web caching. In this paper, we introduce the notion of the effective reference probability that incorporates the. effect of expiration time for Web caching. For a formal approach, we propose the continuous independent reference model extending the existing independent reference model. Based on this model, we define formally the effective reference probability and derive it theoretically. By simply replacing the reference probability in the existing cache replacement algorithms with the effective reference probability, we can take the effect of expiration time into account. The results of performance experiments show that the replacement algorithms using the effective reference probability always outperform existing ones. In particular, when the cache fraction is 0.05 and data update is comparatively frequent (i.e., the update frequency is more than 1/10 of the reference frequency), the performance is enhanced by more than 30% in LRU-2 and 13% in Aggarwal's method. The results show that the effective reference probability significantly enhances the performance of Web caching when the expiration time is given.