Decarbonization pathways for Korea's industrial sector towards its 2050 carbon neutrality goal

Abstract

This study examines cost-effective strategies for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Korea's industry sector to achieve the nation's 2050 carbon neutrality goal, using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) integrated assessment modeling (IAM) framework. We find that the iron & steel, cement, and chemical industry segments contribute about 70% of the sector's GHG mitigation efforts to align with 2050 carbon neutrality. Key decarbonization options include electrification of industrial processes, utilization of hydrogen and bioenergy, and adoption of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, although the relative significance of these options varies across the segments. We also demonstrate the dependency of sectoral decarbonization pathways on the availability of CCS and hydrogen technologies, as well as their influence on the development of upstream energy infrastructures, such as electricity and hydrogen production. Our results indicate that limited CCS deployment would necessitate a faster phase-out of fossil fuel-based industrial technologies and quicker decarbonization of the electricity and hydrogen production sectors. Conversely, constrained hydrogen deployment would increase reliance on CCS, placing a greater emission reduction burden on other sectors like electricity generation and buildings. Within the industry sector, limited CCS utilization would force the chemical segment to achieve disproportionately larger negative emissions compared to the constrained hydrogen deployment scenario, as the latter allows for wider adoption of CCS, particularly in the iron & steel segment. Overall, the study emphasizes the need for rapid and extensive transformation of the three key industrial segments to achieve Korea's 2050 carbon neutrality target, with CCS technologies and, to a lesser extent, hydrogen technologies playing a significant role in shaping the industry's decarbonization pathways and the nation's energy systems.