Optimization of Malaysia’s electricity mix for 2050 and evolutionary game theory for nuclear technology selection

Abstract

(2) The internal rate of return is the key factor that influences the energy company’s selection

(3) The social benefit affects the behavior strategy of both government and public. This research will be helpful for the Malaysia government to plan for its future energy production system.

Malaysia relies heavily on fossil fuels as its main source for electricity generation. Decades of exploitation and usage of these materials has not only caused environmental contamination and resource depletion but also contributed to the large amount of carbon dioxide emission in the country. Nuclear power was once seen as the solution to these problems but after the Fukushima accident, Malaysia delayed their nuclear plan indefinitely. Malaysia has also signed the Paris Agreement and vowed to achieve the reduction of carbon dioxide emission by 45% per GDP to the level of 2005 by 2030. The importance of this research is to optimize electricity mix in Malaysia. To find an optimized electricity mix for Malaysia in 2050, scenarios with different factors (reduced CO2, Economics (LCOE), Energy Security cost, and Public Support) were defined. Then, a code developed from Python’s SciPy.optimize package was used to optimize each scenario. Next, the code was applied equally to the combined four factors, weighting each constraint at 25%. Four additional scenarios were evaluated, where one factor was weighted at 50%, while the remaining three factors were divided evenly into the other 50%. These analyses showed that predefined upper and lower boundaries can have a significant effect on the optimized electricity mix and nuclear energy can provide significant energy security and cost benefits. Moreover, this research aims to focus on the decision-making process of the stakeholders: government, energy company, and the public. Evolutionary game theory analysis was used in this research to study the cooperation between the stakeholders and the factors that affect the decision-making process. The main conclusions are: (1) The government’s decision directly affects the public’s decision