Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015

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dc.contributor.authorMadaniyazi, Linako
dc.contributor.authorChung, Yeonseungko
dc.contributor.authorKim, Yoonheeko
dc.contributor.authorTobias, Aurelioko
dc.contributor.authorNg, Chris Fook Shengko
dc.contributor.authorSeposo, Xerxesko
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Yumingko
dc.contributor.authorHonda, Yasushiko
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, Antonioko
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, Benko
dc.contributor.authorHashizume, Masahiroko
dc.date.accessioned2021-07-13T00:30:04Z-
dc.date.available2021-07-13T00:30:04Z-
dc.date.created2021-07-12-
dc.date.created2021-07-12-
dc.date.issued2021-07-
dc.identifier.citationENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH AND PREVENTIVE MEDICINE, v.26, no.69, pp.1 - 9-
dc.identifier.issn1342-078X-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10203/286539-
dc.description.abstractBackground Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate. Methods Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its amplitude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics. Results The temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27–1.30), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.50–1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.44–1.48), respectively; adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI: 1.08–1.10), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08–1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32–1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 °C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI: 0.54–1.42), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.82–1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI: − 1.24 to 1.48), respectively. Conclusion Seasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its amplitude may be decreasing under a warming climate.-
dc.languageEnglish-
dc.publisherSPRINGER-
dc.titleSeasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.wosid000671750300001-
dc.type.rimsART-
dc.citation.volume26-
dc.citation.issue69-
dc.citation.beginningpage1-
dc.citation.endingpage9-
dc.citation.publicationnameENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH AND PREVENTIVE MEDICINE-
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s12199-021-00992-8-
dc.contributor.localauthorChung, Yeonseung-
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthorMadaniyazi, Lina-
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthorKim, Yoonhee-
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthorTobias, Aurelio-
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthorNg, Chris Fook Sheng-
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthorSeposo, Xerxes-
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthorGuo, Yuming-
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthorHonda, Yasushi-
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthorGasparrini, Antonio-
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthorArmstrong, Ben-
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthorHashizume, Masahiro-
dc.description.isOpenAccessN-
dc.type.journalArticleArticle-
dc.subject.keywordAuthorSeasonality-
dc.subject.keywordAuthorMortality-
dc.subject.keywordAuthorTemperature-
dc.subject.keywordAuthorClimate change-
dc.subject.keywordPlusWINTER MORTALITY-
dc.subject.keywordPlusTEMPERATURE-
dc.subject.keywordPlusPOPULATION-
dc.subject.keywordPlusDEATHS-
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