Choice data generation using usage scenarios and discounted cash flow analysis

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Discrete choice analysis is a popular method of estimating heterogeneous customer preferences. Although model accuracy can be increased by including more choice data, this option is untenable when the obtaining of choice data from target customers is costly and time-consuming. We thus propose a method for choice data generation for commercial products whose expected money value is a key factor in consumer choice (e.g., commercial vehicles and financial product). Using an individual usage scenario, we generate a discounted cash flow (DCF) model instead of a utility model to estimate the discount rates, rather than partworths, of individual consumers. The DCF model helps us generate synthetic choice data from choice sets consisting of various combinations of attribute levels. Using these data, we employ a hierarchical Bayesian (HB) discrete choice analysis. We conclude the study with a case study on the preference estimation of a hybrid courier truck conversion. The results reveal that the DCF-based HB estimation outperforms the traditional HB estimation.
Publisher
Elsevier Ltd
Issue Date
2020-12
Language
English
Citation

Journal of Choice Modelling, v.37, pp.100250

ISSN
1755-5345
DOI
10.1016/j.jocm.2020.100250
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10203/276623
Appears in Collection
ME-Journal Papers(저널논문)
Files in This Item
70. (2020) JCM Choice Data Generation.pdf(5.15 MB)Download

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