A rapid increase in the occurrence of loss of control in general aviation has raised concern in recent years. There were various attempts to reduce the frequency but still the rate at which the accidents occur has steadily risen in the United States. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is determined to achieve safest and efficient aerospace system. Most of the methods that attempt to mitigate occurrence of the accidents are limited to evaluate discrete events. They are unsuccessful in addressing dynamic interactions that lead to address breach of system safety. The nature of loss of control-infight (LOC-I) is understandable with the assistance of data that is available. Loss of control (LOC) pertains to unique characteristics in which external and internal events act in conjunction. The unmitigated rate at which accidents take place directs a need a more inclusive risk model that extends currently available research.
In this dissertation, we summarize an existing literature on previous studies, analysis, and reviewing probabilistic methodologies. We outlined a holistic modelling technique using Probabilistic Risk Assessment model comprised of three phases: causal factor identification, model development, and subject matter expert validation, incorporating information from human factors, technological, and organizational perspectives. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has approved an Integrated Safety Assessment Model (ISAM) for evaluating safety in the National Airspace System (NAS). ISAM consists of an event sequence diagram (ESD) with fault trees containing numerous parameters, which is recognized as casual risk model.
The U.S. data is used from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) dataset, which comprises of 7-year period from January 2008 through December 2015. This dissertation focuses on the loss of control-inflight pertaining to maneuvering phase of flight. The maneuvering is in the critical flight phase with a high number of LOC-I occurrences in general aviation. This study examines those casual factors that influence on pilot behavior during maneuvering phase of flight. The maneuvering phase of flight mostly involves accidents including operational pitfalls that a pilot may encounter as a result of poor decision making. We outline an integrated risk assessment framework to model maneuvering through cross-examination of external and internal events.
The purpose of this dissertation was to study the nature of their occurrence, where highly trained and qualified pilots failed to maintain aircraft control irrespective of the preventive nature of the events. Various metrics have been presented for evaluating the significance of these parameters to identify the most important ones. The proposed sensitivity analysis considers the accident, fatality and risk reduction frequencies that assist in the decision making process and foresees future risks from a general aviation perspective. We identified vulnerable factors pertaining to maneuvering phase of flight are obstacles, situational guidance, ostentatious distraction, fatigue operation, and obstacles. These factors become more relevant to aircraft operations at low altitude and low visible terrain, and could be a hurdle in smooth operation of future mode of air transportation. Additionally, it is also revealed that the current standard operating procedures are not well served in addressing these aforementioned factors in general aviation domain.