Collision probability assessment between surface ships considering maneuver intentions

Abstract

For safe ship navigation, efficient and reliable collision assessment and trajectory estimation are required. This study addresses the problem of collision probability assessment between surface ships considering their maneuver intentions. An extended Kalman filter is used for trajectory estimation, and the collision probability and the probability of intentions are evaluated. The maneuver intention estimated using graphical models that describe the behavioral procedures of ship operators. The feasibility and performance of the proposed method are validated through simulations.