DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Kim, Sungki | ko |
dc.contributor.author | Ko, Wonil | ko |
dc.contributor.author | Nam, Hyoon | ko |
dc.contributor.author | Kim, Chulmin | ko |
dc.contributor.author | Chung, Yanghon | ko |
dc.contributor.author | Bang, Sungsig | ko |
dc.date.accessioned | 2017-10-23T02:01:04Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2017-10-23T02:01:04Z | - |
dc.date.created | 2017-09-08 | - |
dc.date.created | 2017-09-08 | - |
dc.date.issued | 2017-08 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | NUCLEAR ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY, v.49, no.5, pp.1063 - 1070 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1738-5733 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10203/226464 | - |
dc.description.abstract | This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculatethe uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, thestatistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering costestimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. Whenthe uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting wascalculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of errorof 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model atdecreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation. | - |
dc.language | English | - |
dc.publisher | KOREAN NUCLEAR SOC | - |
dc.subject | SHALE GAS | - |
dc.subject | FUTURE | - |
dc.subject | ARIMA | - |
dc.subject | CHINA | - |
dc.title | Statistical model for forecasting uranium prices to estimate the nuclear fuel cycle cost | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.wosid | 000410895900018 | - |
dc.identifier.scopusid | 2-s2.0-85021881900 | - |
dc.type.rims | ART | - |
dc.citation.volume | 49 | - |
dc.citation.issue | 5 | - |
dc.citation.beginningpage | 1063 | - |
dc.citation.endingpage | 1070 | - |
dc.citation.publicationname | NUCLEAR ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.net.2017.05.007 | - |
dc.identifier.kciid | ART002249747 | - |
dc.contributor.localauthor | Chung, Yanghon | - |
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthor | Kim, Sungki | - |
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthor | Ko, Wonil | - |
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthor | Nam, Hyoon | - |
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthor | Kim, Chulmin | - |
dc.description.isOpenAccess | Y | - |
dc.type.journalArticle | Article | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | ARIMA Model | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Cost Driver | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Forecasting | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Nuclear Fuel Cycle Cost | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Uranium Price | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | SHALE GAS | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | FUTURE | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | ARIMA | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | CHINA | - |
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