The framework of proliferation resistance evaluation methodology, based on attribute analysis and scenario analysis, for nuclear energy system is suggested in order to allow for the comprehensive assessment of proliferation resistance by addressing the intrinsic and extrinsic features of nuclear energy system. Proliferation resistance is viewed within the context of the success tree model of proliferator’s diversion attempt and expressed by the value of top event probability of the success tree model. This study focused on the method that the value of top event is estimated. The methodology uses two different methods to quantify the likelihood of basic events constituting the top event. The likelihood of basic event success affected by intrinsic feature of nuclear energy system was assessed by using multi-attribute utility theory and likelihood of basic event related to the diversion detection measures was assessed by direct expert elicitation. The value of top event was calculated based on the intersection of probabilities of basic event success.
Feasibility of the methodology was explored by applying it to selected reference nuclear energy systems. System-Integrated Modular Advanced Reactor (SMART) system and Light Water Reactor (LWR) were chosen as reference systems and the value proliferation resistance of SMART and LWR were evaluated. Characteristics of inherent features and hypothesized safeguards measures of both systems were identified and used as input data to evaluate proliferation resistance. The results and conclusions are applicable only within the context of subjectivity of this methodology.