The dynamics of the EU's nuclear trade network: An ERGM analysis

Abstract

This empirical study analyzes the dynamics and mechanisms underlying the formation of the nuclear trade network in Europe. For this analysis, we use ERGM (the Exponential Random Graph Model) to estimate whether and the extent to which specific subnetwork structures and the attributes of state actors proactively influenced the formation of the EU's nuclear trade network. We examine both endogenous and exogenous factors. In terms of endogenous effects, the analysis results show that the current nuclear trade network in the EU was formed by intensive imports in certain states and active exports from others. Therefore, the network was formed by the active trade of nuclear commodities between specific states. In terms of exogenous effects, the analysis results show that certain attributes of European states, such as economic power, military power, and environmental policy, contributed to the formation of the nuclear trade network. © 2022