Building trust in nonproliferation: transparency in nuclear-power development

Abstract

Nuclear transparency is beneficial to nonproliferation. It helps non-nuclear-weapon states demonstrate their commitment to the nonproliferation regime and nuclear-weapon states account for their stockpiles. It also buttresses the safeguards process of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This article discusses the need for better transparency in nonproliferation efforts and offers a new tripartite model of nuclear transparency which emphasizes not only the states that want to prove their nonproliferation compliance through transparency, but also the audience for such transparency, and how transparency information is transferred from providers to recipients. The article discusses a range of issues concerning how such information is generated, appraised, and presented, taking into account the effect of cultural influences on different states’ transparency practices. To better synthesize various pieces of information intended to demonstrate nuclear transparency, we propose a nuclear-transparency dataset that includes nuclear-related factors as well as socio-political variables. Regression results using the dataset and responses from an expert survey show that the proposed transparency indicators provided a relatively similar assessment to the IAEA’s level of confidence about a state’s safeguards record, as stated in its 2013 safeguards report. Finally, the article proposes a direction for the development of this transparency index, as well as means by which states can improve their nuclear transparency.